Rural, rustic and rusty

Here is some information that Regional Directors have been receiving, in trying to deal with rural economic problems.. 

      There are challenges in our future we have not seen before and these issues are structural.  A political decision can’t make them go away. some of these problems are: Increased energy costs. Oil is $90 a barrel.  It’s projected to be $100 in Q2 and indications are that production from current projects has peaked.  Demand in the oil is increasing, demand will challenge supply and prices will continue to increase. Our energy costs are going to get much higher.  But, our current lifestyle and economic structure is entirely based on cheap energy. Rural areas are going to have to find ways to adapt.

   Increase in temperature; NASA has determined that the first half of 2010 was the hottest in 131 years. The 50 year forecast for most of rural BC is for increasing annual temperatures, reduced annual rainfall over the summer and more severe weather events. 

 Population changes; Over the next 10 years, BC’s population is expected to grow by 1 million and as part of that, the 65+ population is expected to grow by over 400,000.  Immigration accounts for about 75% of BC’s population increase and about 90% of labour market growth.  In rural BC and in our region, the picture is not as rosy. We are projected to grow, but at a much lower rate that the province and will not get significant numbers of immigrants.  The big challenge is that all the net the growth is projected to be in the 65+ category.  Most of rural BC is projected to lose population in the labour force and school age categories.  How are we going to be keeping the jobs and businesses we have now, let alone growing the employment base.  But most of the time, we still focus on growth.   We are focussed on the closure of empty schools, not on the burgeoning 75+ rural population and the needs that they, actually that is we, will have.  And, we soon will have 40% or more of our rural primary household maintainers aged 65+.  The common refrain lately around any kind of public investment is “we folks on fixed income can’t afford that.”

Projected debt; By March 2010, our provincial debt was $41.4 billion and it’s increasing.  The BC deficit is about $1.7 Billion.  BC Hydro has about $8 billion in debt and BC Ferries about $1.2 billion and that debt that consumers will have to pay through increased fees So, we are likely to see senior government contraction, higher taxes and fees, and no or little help for rural areas, or any significant new rural investment.  Senior government interests are not necessarily our interests as rural citizens or as rural communities.

What can we do about these realities? We may need to start thinking about becoming more self-reliant.  To do that, we will need to focus on cooperation at all levels, interpersonal, inter organizational, inter municipal and with First Nations and regionally.  It will not be an easy transition.  We are blessed with a large group of “me” generation boomers, and rural areas also have a long history of us vs. them between communities and rural areas, between municipalities, with our First Nations neighbours, with newcomers and the old timers, between political ideologies…the list goes on. We have many ways to divide ourselves.  We need to find empathy, inclusiveness, and rediscover the common good.  We need to start dealing with what “community” really is and means, and how different it is from municipality.  We need to recognize and come to terms with interdependence and as such:

·      develop relationships, trust and understanding in the community.

·      assemble community based research, and conduct research to better understand the region

·  expand capacity, networks and linkages

·      New is not easy – takes time to build relationships, trust and understanding of what the region is, politically, socially, economically and what the related role is/could be.

·      The region is divided physically and also by the imperative of local and general distrust of regional.

·      It’s not possible to reach or please everyone (a reminder)

·      Information needs a organizational “vehicle” to deliver change to rural communities.